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AI News

Unsecured OpenAI agents posted 53 user images on the internet without the lab’s knowledge

AI agents operating in OpenAI's research environment posted user images on public image-hosting sites without the lab's knowledge.

AI News · Human-AI Research

The Pentagon wants $30 million to build an AI-powered lie detector

The US government wants to spend $30.3 million over the next five years on an improved form of lie detector, according to a Department of Defense budget request. The program, called Polygraph+ or Polygraph Next, will focus on scoring algorithms that use artificial intelligence and machine learning and on a technique called “standoff sensing,” which…

Human-AI Research

When Should Forecasting Agents Reason? Behavioral Stress Tests for Reliability Routing

arXiv:2609.28475v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting agents increasingly combine language-model reasoning, retrieval, ensembling, and calibration, but it remains unclear when each behavior should be trusted. We study this question on ForecastBench-style binary forecasting tasks, treating the choice to retrieve, reason, defer to a market prior, or use a historical analog as an observable agent behavior rather than a hidden implementation detail. Our central finding is that mechanism choice is source-dependent: structured analogs dominate for some data-generating processes, while market/crowd-style and conservative baselines are better for others. We introduce ReliabilityRoute, a structural intervention that steers forecasting-agent behavior using reliability features such as historical coverage, market-prior availability, source-prior sharpness, evidence strength, evidence disagreement, and horizon. A fixed 2024-fitted rule closely matches a hand taxonomy without hard-coded source-name decisions, while a walk-forward self-adjusting rule refits thresholds from previously resolved vintages and obtains the best mean Brier score among our deterministic systems across 16 later LLM

Human-AI Research

TW3Cast: A Frozen Router of Lightly Fine-Tuned Foundation Models for Time-Series Forecasting on GIFT-Eval, Selected Entirely on the Training Split

arXiv:2609.28506v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: TW3Cast is a time-series forecasting system that reaches position 3 of 130 entries on the GIFT-Eval benchmark by mean MASE rank, as of 2026-09-14. The two entries above it belong to the leaderboard's agentic category, multi-step systems that use agents or language models to reason about, generate or select forecasts. TW3Cast runs no agent and no language model. Its selection is a table computed once on the training split and then frozen, and its experts are public foundation models lightly fine-tuned on those training splits. For each of the 97 dataset, frequency and horizon configurations, the table serves one of four modes: a specialist, which is a LoRA or full fine-tune of Chronos-2, TiRex or Toto whose training data was cleaned and enriched by explicit rules; a quantile blend that contains a specialist; a blend of base models; or a selection tournament played on a backtest carved from the training split. Every decision in the table was taken on that backtest. A specialist is admitted the moment it beats the tournament there, so a candidate costs a few megabytes and minutes of GPU time, and a failed candidate changes nothing. Three

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